NCAA Tourney Thoughts & Notes

This is my rough copy. I have everything on here. I will fix it up by Wednesday, but enjoy reading all my thoughts for now!:

It's the day after Selection Sunday and if you listen closely, you can hear "bracket buzz" around North America. Everyone and their dog is filling out a bracket and joining a pool. Before you go to fill your bracket out, here are some interesting thoughts and notes to ponder over:

Don't overthink it
Keep it simple. A #1 or a #2 seed will win the tournament, but not Michigan State. The only other team not in the top 7 to have a chance to win it is #4 seed Wake Forest. In fact, I think they are a better team than #2 seed Michigan State is. They are healthier and more athletic. I think the cut off for elite teams this year is the top 7. One of these top 7 (#1 or #2 seeds) will win the tourney. Bank it.

The Big East is for real
I have been ranting all season that the Big East is the best conference in NCAA basketball. The tournament selection committee has verified this. Three of the four #1 seeds are Big East teams. Out of the seven Big East teams to make the tournament, the lowest seeded one is a #6 seed! The Big East is top heavy and packs a punch. Compare that to the ACC who also sent 7 teams but have two #7 seeds and a #10 seed. I'm not knocking the ACC, they are a good conference, likely 2nd best in the nation, but the Big East is the beast. The Big 10 also sent 7 teams, but their 2nd best team is a #5 seed and they have a #8 seed, two #10 seeds, and a #12 seed. All this to say, the Big East is the best conference and you can take their strong teams deep, with confidence.

The Bid Thieves screwed it up
You ask, what is a "bid thief"? Well, it is a team that won their conference tournament and qualified with an automatic bid for the NCAA tournament, who otherwise wouldn't qualify for the NCAA tournament if they didn't win their conference tournament (because they didn't have a body of work good enough to qualify "at-large" to the big dance). Get that? Ok, one more time:

They are a team whose resume wasn't good enough to get an "at-large" bid to the NCAA tournament but since they won their conference tourney (and the automatic bid associated with such victory) they are in the big dance and they've taken a spot away from a team that just didn't quite make it in the tournament. They stole a bid and caused one less "at-large" bid. That is what makes a "bid thief" and they are:

Mississippi State (SEC), Cleveland State (Horizon), Temple (Atlantic-10), and USC (Pac-10).

If they didn't win their conference tournaments then four other teams would have had spots in the tournament. Here are teams from those conferences that qualified "at-large" (they were good enough to make it and would have stopped a bid thief if they won their conference tourney).

From the SEC: LSU and Tennessee
From the Horizon: Butler
From the A-10: Xavier and Dayton
From the Pac-10: Washington, UCLA, Arizona State, California, and Arizona

If any of these teams above won their conference tourney instead they still would have qualified for the NCAA tourney but Mississippi State, Cleveland State, Temple, and USC would NOT have qualified for the NCAA Tourney and 4 more spots would be available to teams that just didn't make it in. Ok, now that you've got that...

How did these bid thieves "screw it up"?
Every year there seems to be a team that gets hosed. A team that is good enough to qualify for the tourney but the committee selects another team instead. It's a very tough situation and unfortunate, but that's how it goes. These bid thieves took a spot from a team whose overall season body of work was good enough to qualify for the tournament. They "screwed it up" for those outside teams on the bubble hoping to make it in but just didn't make it because the NCAA committee chose someone else. These bubble teams that didn't make it are San Diego State, Creighton, and Saint Mary's. It would have been fun to have these teams in the big dance because they all are cinderella's from mid-major conferences who could have upset the big boys in the 1st round. This is half of what makes March Madness fun! All the fun upsets! I know Cleveland State is from a mid-major, but the other 3 bid thieves are from power conferences and aren't true cinderellas. And Cleveland State won't beat Wake Forest, who earlier this season was #1 in the nation. It's just too bad there are less cinderella teams in the big dance this year.

No love for the Mid-Majors
We need to give more love to the mid-major. The fact that 19-13 Arizona (6th place in the Pac-10) and 19-12 Wisconsin (7th in the Big-10) qualify over 26-6 Saint Mary's is too bad. The committee needs to remember we would never know about schools like Gonzaga, Xavier, Davidson, VCU, etc. if we never let them in the big dance. Who really cares about a middle of the pack team from a weaker big conference? Because of monetary reasons, the committee (who is made up 33% of Big 10 schools) will let seven Big 10 teams straggle in (so they can get funding) but leave out a smaller school who deserves a shot.

To prove that these mid-major schools are legit, this year Siena gets a #9 seed, above teams like Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Dayton. The committee knows that these smaller teams are good, so when they automatically qualify by winning their conference tourney, they give them a good seed, but if they get upset in their conference tourney then all of a sudden the committee doesn't put them in the tournament?? All of a sudden they go from a #9 seed to not even being in the tournament. These small schools get no respect.

Today the final NCAA rankings came out. Xavier is #22 in the nation and they got a #4 seed the tourney. Butler is #23 in the nation but yet they get a #9 seed, go figure. Utah State is #25 in the nation and got a #11 seed but Illinois is 26th in the nation but gets a #5 seed. The committee needs to stop being biased towards the big conferences. Again, I know it's all about money, but please rank these teams equally. Give the small guy a shot when he deserves it, and then when you put him in, give him a fair seeding. Utah is 28th in the nation and gets a #5 seed. Saint Mary's is 32nd in the nation but doesn't even qualify...it's so sad. Yet Texas at #34 in the nation gets a #7 seed. Tennessee is 35th in the nation but gets a #9 seed. Which brings us back to Siena, #37 in the nation and a #9 seed. But the committee will put mediocre teams like Arizona and Wisconsin in at-large who aren't even in the top 40 but leave out #32 Saint Mary's because the committee wants the big conferences to get all the money. Sad...no love for the mid majors except when they automatically qualify.

Go Figure
Now, having said all that, I believe Arizona and Wisconsin can win their first round games. Arizona is due for a win (they've lost 5 out of their last 6 games) and matches up well with Utah (similar styles). Wisconsin is playing a Florida State team that has to travel 2700 miles to Boise, Idaho. Ouch.

Travel Distance
These teams also have to travel 2000+ miles:
Utah, Mississippi State, UCLA, and Arizona State. Consider the time zone change as a factor when you go to make your picks. Not the final factor, but it's something worth noting.


Interesting Team Notes

Duke - You either love them or hate them, no in-between. Keep in mind they haven't beaten a top 4 seed since 2001. They have recently changed point guards, and live and die by the 3 point shot. However, they are solid defensively. They could make it to Detroit just as easily as they could bust out in the 2nd round.

Syracuse - Same thing with them. They could easily make the elite 8 or not make it past the 2nd round. Anything is possible with the most consistently inconsistent team this season. They have the potential to be great, but also the potential to overlook their opponent. Who knows how they will play after an exhausting Big East tournament and a long flight to Miami.

Michigan - They got a bad draw. Like, the worst out of all the teams in the tournament. Their road to win it all (6 games in a row you have to win) is harder than any other team (including #16 seeds). Their first game they play Clemson who is 21st in the nation yet a #7 seed. Earlier this season Clemson was a top 10 team breaking into the top 5. Michigan's 2nd game will be against #2 seed Oklahoma, who was in the top 5 for most of the season, and player of the year Blake Griffin. Syracuse, Gonzaga, and North Carolina are in the same region as Michigan as well. If chalk holds, then Michigan has the toughest road.

Louisville - Unless you are a college basketball geek like me, this is the #1 seed you know the least about. You likely have them as your first #1 seed to lose in the tournament. Louisville's only real competition in their region is Wake Forest. All the other #1 seeds have a harder road. The last 2 months of the season Louisville has come on very strong, moreso than any other team in the nation. Think twice about Louisville, they could be the first #1 overall seed to actually surprise people by making the Final Four.

Siena - I like them before the brackets came out to be a Cinderella but they are overrated a bit and play Ohio State in Dayton, Ohio. That's a tough draw. Watch out for those damn Buckeyes. Hopefully I'm wrong though and the little school of 5'000 people can shock Ohio State (of 100'000 plus students) in the state of Ohio. But I doubt it.

Kansas - is a good team but a streaky team, and they didn't deserve a 3 seed after losing to Baylor in the opening game of the Big 12 tournament. If West Virginia doesn't get upset by Dayton, look for West Virginia to match up well with Kansas and "upset" them.